According to Todd Rosenbluth (the senior director of ETF/mutual fund research at research company CFRA), crypto asset investors might have to wait longer for a Bitcoin futures exchange traded product.
Rosenbluth, speaking on CNBC’s ETF Edge on Oct. 12, stated that although a Bitcoin futures product is most likely to become the first approved crypto ETF, he warned that the current regulatory environment could lead to further delays.
More than 20 cryptocurrency-based exchange-traded products are still awaiting approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulator has yet to approve any of them, instead moving the ball forward on several occasions.
According to the researcher, regulators might wait for all these products to reach their goals before they approve them. This would avoid having a “first-mover” advantage.
“It’s possible, in fact, it’s probable — we’re going see a delay for a Bitcoin futures exchange traded fund until 2022 until the regulatory environment becomes more clear.”
Jan van Eck, CEO of Van Eck Associates, stated that the SEC’s primary concern is the discrepancy in Bitcoin prices and futures contracts. He also warned of the possibility of too many funds.
Futures strategies can suffer from a Bitcoin rally if they are not performing well. He stated this before adding that “the SEC wants some visibility into the underlying Bitcoin markets.”
Van Eck suggested that regulators need to have more control over crypto trading, which is what it seems to be trying to do with recent threats against Coinbase’s stablecoin lending program and Coinbase’s Coinbase. Robinhood and other popular trading platforms are already registered as broker-dealers.
Related: Are whales behind the approval of a Bitcoin futures exchange traded fund (ETF)?
As analysts suggested, big investors could be buying Bitcoin in anticipation of ETF approval this month, any speculation about a delay could have a negative impact on the Bitcoin price. Although the asset has rallied 37.5% in the past fortnight, it reached a local peak of $58,000 on October 12, more regulatory delay could dampen current market momentum.
Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg senior ETF analyst, is confident that this month’s approval of an ETF is within 75%.
The deadline for four BTC ETFs was extended by the SEC earlier this month — the Global X Bitcoin Trust and Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin futures Fund, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust and Kryptoin Bitcoin Trust — for 45 days.
Van Eck’s Bitcoin ETF, which is physically backed, was delayed by the SEC for the second year in September. A decision date was set for November 14th by the SEC.